Chain of Analysis
1. MASTER CHAIN FORMULA FOR PAPER 2
Use this for almost every 3–6 mark answer:
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Cause
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Process
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Immediate effect
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Final consequence
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Case-study link
Template:
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______ causes ______. -
This leads to ______. -
As a result, ______. -
In this location, this is important because ______.
Example:
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Urbanisation increases the number of people in towns.
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This increases demand for water.
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More groundwater is extracted.
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As a result, aquifers may be depleted.
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In hot dry areas, this is worse because rainfall is limited.
2. POPULATION GROWTH CHAINS
Chain: High birth rate → population growth
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High birth rate means more babies are born.
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More children survive if healthcare improves.
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Total population increases.
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Demand for food, water, housing and jobs rises.
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Pressure on natural resources increases.
Chain: Falling death rate → population growth
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Improved healthcare reduces deaths from disease.
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Better sanitation and clean water reduce infections.
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More people survive to older ages.
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Population increases.
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More resources are needed to support the larger population.
Chain: Population growth → pressure on food supply
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Population increases.
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More food is needed.
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Farmers may grow crops more intensively.
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More fertilisers, pesticides and irrigation may be used.
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Soil, water and ecosystems may be damaged.
Chain: Population growth → water shortage
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More people need water for drinking, washing and cooking.
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More water is also needed for farming and industry.
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Groundwater and rivers are extracted faster.
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Water supply may not recharge quickly enough.
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Shortages occur.
Chain: Population growth → waste problem
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More people produce more solid waste and sewage.
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Waste collection systems may become overloaded.
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Waste may be dumped illegally.
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Land and water pollution increase.
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Disease risk may rise.
Chain: Population growth → deforestation
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More land is needed for housing, farming and fuelwood.
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Forests are cleared.
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Habitats are destroyed.
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Biodiversity decreases.
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Soil erosion and carbon dioxide levels increase.
Chain: Population growth → unemployment
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Population grows faster than job creation.
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More people compete for limited jobs.
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Unemployment rises.
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Poverty may increase.
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People may migrate to find work.
3. POPULATION DENSITY CHAINS
Chain: High population density → pressure on services
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Many people live in a small area.
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Demand for schools, hospitals, transport and water increases.
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Services become overcrowded.
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Quality of life may fall.
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Government spending may need to increase.
Chain: High population density → housing shortage
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More people need homes.
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Land becomes expensive.
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Poorer people may live in overcrowded or informal housing.
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Sanitation may be poor.
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Disease may spread more easily.
Chain: Low population density → poor service access
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Few people live over a large area.
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It is expensive to provide roads, schools and healthcare.
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People may travel long distances for services.
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Development may be slower.
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Migration to towns may increase.
4. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION CHAINS
Chain: Flat fertile land → dense population
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Flat land is easier to build on.
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Fertile soil supports farming.
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Food and jobs are available.
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Transport routes are easier to build.
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More people settle there.
Chain: Coastal location → dense population
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Coastal areas provide fishing opportunities.
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Ports allow trade and transport.
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Tourism may develop.
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Jobs increase.
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Settlements grow near the coast.
Chain: River valley → dense population
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Rivers provide water for drinking and irrigation.
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Floodplains may have fertile soil.
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Transport and trade may be easier.
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Agriculture and settlements develop.
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Population density increases.
Chain: Mountains → sparse population
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Steep slopes make farming difficult.
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Transport routes are harder to build.
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Landslides may occur.
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Building costs are high.
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Fewer people settle there.
Chain: Desert → sparse population
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Rainfall is low.
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Water supply is limited.
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Crop growth is difficult.
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Few jobs are available outside mining or tourism.
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Population remains low.
Chain: Ice-covered land → sparse population
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Ice prevents farming and construction.
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Temperatures are extremely low.
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Transport is difficult.
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Food and fuel must be imported.
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Permanent settlement is limited.
5. MIGRATION CHAINS
Chain: Push factors → emigration
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People face problems in their home area.
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Examples:
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unemployment
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poor education
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poor healthcare
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war/conflict
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natural hazards
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harsh climate
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People leave to improve their quality of life.
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Population in the origin area may decrease.
Chain: Pull factors → immigration
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Another area offers better opportunities.
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Examples:
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jobs
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universities
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healthcare
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safer living conditions
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higher wages
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People move there.
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Population in the destination area increases.
Chain: Young adults migrate → ageing population left behind
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Young adults leave rural/remote areas.
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Older people remain.
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Birth rate may fall because fewer young adults have children there.
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Working-age population decreases.
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Healthcare and elderly care pressure increases.
Chain: Migration to cities → urbanisation
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People move from rural areas to cities for jobs and education.
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City population increases.
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Housing demand increases.
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Informal settlements may grow.
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Water, waste and transport systems become pressured.
Chain: Out-migration → labour shortage
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Working-age people leave.
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Fewer workers remain for farming, fishing or industry.
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Production may decrease.
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Local businesses may struggle.
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Economy may decline.
Chain: Out-migration → remittances
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Migrants work in another region/country.
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They send money back home.
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Families can afford food, education and healthcare.
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Local living standards may improve.
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However, the local area may still lose skilled workers.
6. URBANISATION CHAINS
Chain: Urbanisation → groundwater shortage
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Urban population increases.
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More water is needed for homes, industry and services.
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More groundwater is pumped from aquifers.
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Concrete and tarmac reduce infiltration.
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Groundwater is used faster than it is replaced.
Chain: Urbanisation → flooding
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Vegetation is removed for buildings and roads.
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Concrete surfaces are impermeable.
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Rainwater cannot infiltrate into soil.
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Surface runoff increases.
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Drains and rivers may overflow.
Chain: Urbanisation → air pollution
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More cars, buses and industries operate in cities.
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Fossil fuels are burned.
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Pollutants such as carbon monoxide, particulates and nitrogen oxides are released.
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Air quality decreases.
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Respiratory disease may increase.
Chain: Urbanisation → waste pollution
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More people produce more waste.
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Waste systems may not cope.
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Waste may be dumped into rivers or open land.
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Water and land pollution increase.
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Disease vectors such as rats and flies may increase.
Chain: Urbanisation → loss of farmland
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Cities expand outwards.
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Farmland is converted into housing, roads and factories.
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Local food production decreases.
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Food may need to be imported.
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Food prices may rise.
Chain: Urbanisation → heat island effect
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Concrete and asphalt absorb heat.
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Fewer trees are present to provide shade and transpiration.
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Vehicles and buildings release heat.
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City temperatures become higher than surrounding rural areas.
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Energy demand for cooling increases.
7. AGRICULTURE AND YIELD CHAINS
Chain: Irrigation → increased yield
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Irrigation provides water when rainfall is low.
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Plants can photosynthesise more.
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Growth improves.
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Crop yield increases.
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Food supply and farmer income may rise.
Chain: Fertilisers → increased yield
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Fertilisers add mineral ions such as nitrates, phosphates and potassium.
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Plants make proteins and grow faster.
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More leaves/flowers/fruits may form.
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Crop yield increases.
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Farmer income may improve.
Chain: Pesticides → increased yield
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Pesticides kill insects, fungi or weeds.
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Less crop damage occurs.
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More crops survive until harvest.
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Yield increases.
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Food supply and profit may increase.
Chain: Mechanisation → increased yield
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Machines plough, plant and harvest faster.
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Larger areas can be farmed.
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Harvesting can happen at the best time.
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Crop loss may decrease.
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Total production increases.
Chain: Improved seeds → increased yield
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Improved varieties may resist disease or drought.
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More plants survive.
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Growth is more reliable.
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Yield increases.
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Farmers earn more income.
Chain: Greenhouses → increased yield
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Temperature, water and pests can be controlled.
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Plants grow in better conditions.
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Growing season may be extended.
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More crops can be produced each year.
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Yield increases.
Chain: Crop rotation → soil fertility maintained
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Different crops are grown in different seasons.
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Nutrient depletion is reduced.
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Legumes may add nitrates to soil.
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Soil remains fertile.
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Yield is maintained over time.
Chain: Terracing → farming on slopes
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Terraces create flat steps on hillsides.
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Water runoff slows down.
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Soil erosion decreases.
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Crops can grow on steep land.
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Agricultural land area increases.
8. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE CHAINS
Chain: Over-irrigation → salinisation
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Irrigation water contains dissolved salts.
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In hot climates, water evaporates from soil.
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Salts are left behind.
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Soil becomes too salty.
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Crop growth decreases.
Chain: Over-irrigation → water shortage
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Large amounts of water are taken from rivers or aquifers.
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Less water remains for people, wildlife and other farms.
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Rivers may shrink and groundwater levels fall.
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Ecosystems may be damaged.
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Conflict over water may increase.
Chain: Fertiliser use → eutrophication
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Fertilisers are washed into rivers by runoff.
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Nitrates and phosphates increase.
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Algae grow rapidly.
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Dead algae are decomposed by bacteria.
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Oxygen is used up.
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Fish and aquatic organisms die.
Chain: Pesticides → non-target species death
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Pesticides are sprayed on crops.
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They may kill useful insects such as bees.
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Pollination decreases.
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Biodiversity decreases.
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Crop production may eventually suffer.
Chain: Pesticides → bioaccumulation
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Pesticides enter the bodies of organisms.
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They are not broken down easily.
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Concentration builds up in tissues.
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Predators eat many contaminated prey.
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Higher trophic levels suffer poisoning.
Chain: Monoculture → disease risk
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One crop species is grown over a large area.
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All plants have similar weaknesses.
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Disease or pests spread quickly.
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Large areas of crop may fail.
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Food supply and income decrease.
Chain: Intensive farming → soil degradation
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Land is used continuously.
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Nutrients are removed faster than replaced.
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Soil structure may be damaged by machinery.
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Fertility decreases.
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Yield falls over time.
Chain: Overgrazing → soil erosion
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Too many animals graze in one area.
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Vegetation is removed.
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Roots no longer hold soil together.
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Wind and rain remove topsoil.
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Desertification may occur.
9. FOOD SECURITY CHAINS
Chain: Drought → food insecurity
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Rainfall decreases.
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Crops receive less water.
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Photosynthesis and growth decrease.
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Crop yield falls.
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Food supply decreases and prices rise.
Chain: Cash crops → food insecurity
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Farmers grow crops for sale/export instead of food crops.
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Less land is used to grow local food.
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Local food supply decreases.
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Food prices may rise.
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Poor people may not afford enough food.
Chain: Climate change → food insecurity
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Temperatures and rainfall patterns change.
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Droughts, floods and pests may increase.
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Crops fail more often.
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Food supply becomes less reliable.
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Malnutrition risk increases.
Chain: Conflict → food insecurity
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Farming land may be abandoned.
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Transport routes may be blocked.
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Food cannot reach markets.
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Prices rise.
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People may suffer hunger or famine.
Chain: Soil erosion → food insecurity
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Topsoil is removed by wind or water.
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Nutrients and organic matter are lost.
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Crop growth decreases.
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Yield falls.
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Food supply becomes less reliable.
Chain: Population growth → food insecurity
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More people need food.
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Food production may not increase fast enough.
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More imports may be needed.
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Poor families may not afford food.
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Food insecurity increases.
10. FOOD SECURITY SOLUTION CHAINS
Chain: Irrigation → improved food security
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Irrigation supplies water during dry periods.
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Crop growth becomes more reliable.
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Yields increase.
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Food supply increases.
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Food insecurity decreases.
Chain: Fertilisers → improved food security
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Fertilisers add nutrients to soil.
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Crop growth improves.
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More food is produced per hectare.
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Food availability increases.
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Prices may become more stable.
Chain: Improved storage → food security
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Better storage protects crops from pests, moisture and decay.
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Less food is wasted after harvest.
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More food remains available.
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Farmers can sell crops later.
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Food security improves.
Chain: GM / drought-resistant crops → food security
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Crops survive with less water or resist pests.
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Crop losses decrease.
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Yield becomes more reliable.
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Food supply increases.
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Farmers are less affected by drought or disease.
Chain: Education for farmers → food security
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Farmers learn better methods.
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They use water, fertilisers and pesticides more efficiently.
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Yield increases without as much environmental damage.
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Food production becomes more sustainable.
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Food security improves.
11. WATER SUPPLY CHAINS
Chain: Rainfall → groundwater recharge
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Rain falls on land.
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Some water infiltrates into soil.
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Water percolates into aquifers.
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Groundwater stores are replenished.
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Wells and springs can supply water.
Chain: Drought → water shortage
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Rainfall is lower than normal.
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Rivers and reservoirs receive less water.
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Groundwater recharge decreases.
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Water supply falls.
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Restrictions or shortages may occur.
Chain: Population growth → water demand
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More people need drinking water and sanitation.
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More food must be grown, increasing irrigation.
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More industry may develop.
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Water extraction rises.
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Shortage risk increases.
Chain: Industry → water pollution
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Factories may release chemicals or warm water.
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Pollutants enter rivers or groundwater.
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Water quality decreases.
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Aquatic organisms may die.
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Water may become unsafe for people.
Chain: Agriculture → water pollution
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Fertilisers, pesticides and animal waste wash into rivers.
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Nutrients and toxins enter water.
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Eutrophication or poisoning may occur.
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Fish and other organisms die.
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Drinking water treatment becomes more expensive.
12. WATER MANAGEMENT CHAINS
Chain: Drip irrigation → water conservation
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Drip irrigation delivers water directly to plant roots.
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Less water evaporates or runs off.
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Crops still receive enough water.
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Water use becomes more efficient.
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Shortage risk decreases.
Chain: Rainwater harvesting → water supply
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Rainwater is collected from roofs or surfaces.
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Water is stored in tanks.
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It can be used during dry periods.
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Demand for groundwater decreases.
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Water security improves.
Chain: Fixing leaks → water conservation
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Damaged pipes lose treated water.
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Repairing leaks reduces wastage.
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More water reaches homes and farms.
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Less extra water needs to be extracted.
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Supply becomes more reliable.
Chain: Water meters → reduced demand
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People are charged based on water use.
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They are encouraged to waste less water.
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Total consumption falls.
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Pressure on water supplies decreases.
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Water management improves.
Chain: Desalination → increased water supply
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Seawater is treated to remove salt.
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Freshwater becomes available.
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Coastal cities can increase supply.
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However, it uses a lot of energy.
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It may be expensive and produce salty waste.
Chain: Dams/reservoirs → water storage
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Water is stored during wet periods.
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Stored water can be used during dry periods.
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Irrigation and drinking water supply become more reliable.
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Flood risk may also be reduced.
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However, habitats may be flooded and people displaced.
13. WATER POLLUTION CHAINS
Chain: Sewage → disease
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Untreated sewage enters rivers.
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Pathogens contaminate the water.
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People may drink or wash in unsafe water.
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Diseases such as cholera or diarrhoea spread.
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Death rates may increase.
Chain: Sewage → oxygen depletion
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Sewage contains organic matter.
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Decomposers break it down.
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Decomposers use oxygen during respiration.
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Dissolved oxygen levels fall.
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Fish and aquatic organisms die.
Chain: Oil spill → marine damage
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Oil spreads across the water surface.
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It coats birds’ feathers and mammals’ fur.
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Animals lose insulation or ability to fly/swim.
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Oil blocks sunlight and damages food chains.
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Marine biodiversity decreases.
Chain: Plastic waste → microplastics
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Plastic enters rivers and oceans.
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Sunlight and waves break it into smaller pieces.
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Microplastics are eaten by fish and other organisms.
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They enter food chains.
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Wildlife and humans may be affected.
Chain: Industrial chemicals → bioaccumulation
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Toxic chemicals enter water.
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Small organisms absorb them.
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Predators eat contaminated prey.
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Concentration increases up the food chain.
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Top predators may be poisoned.
14. WATER TREATMENT CHAINS
Chain: Screening → cleaner water
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Large objects are removed by screens.
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Water has fewer solid materials.
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Equipment is protected from damage.
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Further treatment becomes easier.
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Water quality improves.
Chain: Sedimentation → removal of solids
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Water is left in tanks.
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Heavy particles settle at the bottom.
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Sludge is removed.
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Water becomes clearer.
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Filtration becomes more effective.
Chain: Filtration → removal of small particles
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Water passes through sand/gravel/filter material.
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Small suspended particles are trapped.
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Water becomes clearer.
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Some microorganisms may also be removed.
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Water quality improves.
Chain: Chlorination → safer drinking water
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Chlorine is added to water.
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Bacteria and pathogens are killed.
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Disease risk decreases.
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Water becomes safer to drink.
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Public health improves.
15. QUICK MODEL CHAINS FOR COMMON PAPER 2 QUESTIONS
“Explain why crop yield decreases”
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Less water / fewer nutrients / more pests.
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Photosynthesis decreases.
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Plant growth slows.
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Fewer fruits/seeds form.
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Yield falls.
“Explain why people settle near coasts”
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Fishing and ports provide jobs.
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Transport and trade are easier.
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Tourism may develop.
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Food and income are available.
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Population grows.
“Explain why harsh climate causes migration”
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Extreme temperatures make living conditions difficult.
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Farming may be limited.
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Jobs may be fewer.
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People seek better education, work and services elsewhere.
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Migration increases.
“Explain why groundwater is at risk”
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Water demand increases.
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More groundwater is extracted.
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Urban surfaces reduce infiltration.
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Aquifers recharge more slowly.
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Groundwater levels fall.
“Explain why food insecurity occurs”
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Food production decreases or demand increases.
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Supply becomes unreliable.
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Prices rise.
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Poor people cannot afford enough food.
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Hunger and malnutrition increase.
